New AI Model Predicts Viral Short-Video Success

Researchers introduce NetGPT and a cross-platform dataset to forecast video influence.

A new research paper details the Short-video Propagation Influence Rating (SPIR) task. It introduces XS-Video, a large-scale, real-world dataset of short-video propagation. Additionally, a Large Graph Model called NetGPT is proposed to predict long-term video influence.

Mark Ellison

By Mark Ellison

September 6, 2025

4 min read

New AI Model Predicts Viral Short-Video Success

Key Facts

  • Researchers proposed a new task: Short-video Propagation Influence Rating (SPIR).
  • A new dataset, XS-Video, includes 117,720 videos and 381,926 samples across 5 Chinese platforms.
  • XS-Video is the first large-scale cross-platform short-video dataset with detailed metrics.
  • A Large Graph Model (LGM) named NetGPT was developed to predict short-video influence.
  • NetGPT bridges heterogeneous graph data with Large Language Models (LLMs).

Why You Care

Have you ever wondered why some short videos explode in popularity while others disappear? Short-video platforms are incredibly popular, captivating billions of users globally. Now, new research aims to predict which videos will go viral. This creation could significantly impact how content creators plan their strategies. It offers a new way to understand the complex world of online video spread. What if you could know a video’s potential before it even launches?

What Actually Happened

Researchers have recently proposed a new task called Short-video Propagation Influence Rating (SPIR). This initiative aims to advance the understanding of how short videos spread, according to the announcement. They have introduced two significant contributions. First, they unveiled a new dataset named XS-Video. This dataset is designed to provide a large-scale, real-world view of short-video propagation networks across different platforms. Second, the team revealed a Large Graph Model (LGM) called NetGPT. This model uses a novel three-stage training mechanism. It bridges heterogeneous graph-structured data with the reasoning abilities of Large Language Models (LLMs).

NetGPT can comprehend and analyze the short-video propagation graph. This enables it to predict the long-term propagation influence of short-videos. Comprehensive experimental results demonstrate the superiority of this method for SPIR. The study finds this applies to both classification and regression metrics on the XS-Video dataset.

Why This Matters to You

Understanding short-video influence is crucial for many applications. This new research offers practical implications for content creators, marketers, and system developers. For example, content creators could use this system to refine their video concepts. They could potentially identify elements that lead to higher engagement. Marketers might better target their campaigns by predicting which videos will reach a wider audience. This could save significant advertising spend. Imagine you are a small business owner. Predicting the virality of your promotional video could dramatically increase your reach without extra cost. How might this change your content strategy?

According to the paper, the XS-Video dataset is particularly notable. It is the first large-scale short-video dataset to include cross-system data. It also provides detailed metrics for each video. “To the best of our knowledge, this is the first large-scale short-video dataset that contains cross-system data or provides all of the views, likes, shares, collects, fans, comments, and comment content,” the paper states. This comprehensive data is a goldmine for anyone studying digital content spread. Your ability to analyze and predict trends could improve significantly.

| Dataset Metrics |
|—|—|
| Videos | 117,720 |
| Samples | 381,926 |
| Topics | 535 |
| Platforms | 5 biggest Chinese platforms |
| Influence Levels | 0 to 9 |

The Surprising Finding

One surprising aspect of this research is the sheer scale and detail of the new XS-Video dataset. The team revealed that the dataset includes 117,720 videos and 381,926 samples. This goes beyond typical single-system datasets. It gathers data from five major Chinese platforms. This cross-system approach is a significant departure from previous research. It challenges the common assumption that video propagation can be understood by looking at one system in isolation. The study finds that combining data from different sources provides a much more complete picture. This comprehensive view is essential for accurate influence prediction. It highlights the interconnected nature of digital content. Understanding how content jumps between platforms is key to predicting its true reach.

What Happens Next

The introduction of NetGPT and the XS-Video dataset marks a significant step forward. We can expect further developments in short-video influence prediction in the coming months. Researchers will likely use the XS-Video dataset to test new models. They will aim to refine the accuracy of influence ratings. For instance, developers might create tools that integrate NetGPT’s capabilities. These tools could offer real-time insights into video performance. Imagine a content creation dashboard that forecasts your video’s potential virality before you even publish it. This could become a reality within the next year. The industry implications are vast. Platforms might even adjust their recommendation algorithms based on these new insights. This could lead to more effective content discovery for users. The technical report explains that this research provides a strong foundation for future advancements in multimedia and social network analysis.

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